Senior housing in Indian, which is still in the nascent stage and growing rather slowly, is being predicted to grow more rapidly in the coming decade.
Indian senior living market has the potential to grow 5x times from current levels to touch ~USD 12 billion by 2030: Colliers India
As India’s demographic landscape continues to evolve, a seismic shift is anticipated in the senior housing market, with projections suggesting a remarkable surge in demand. Colliers, a leading global real estate services company, estimates that the market size could catapult from its current valuation of USD 2-3 billion to an impressive ~USD 12 billion by 2030.
Rooted in societal norms where children traditionally assumed the responsibility of caring for aging parents, contemporary realities such as smaller family sizes and globalized career opportunities have underscored the necessity for organized and assisted living that cater to the unique needs of senior citizens.
India’s demographic trajectory, characterized by an aging population, is set to reshape the landscape of senior living services. According to UN World Population Prospects, by 2050, India is poised to account for a significant share of the global senior population. The median age is projected to rise from 29 to 38 by 2050, with the proportion of individuals aged 60 and above expected to surge from 11% in 2024 to 21% in 2050.
According to Colliers India, the current demand for senior housing stands at 18-20 lakh units, with projections indicating a significant uptick in the coming years. The current supply of senior housing in India remains relatively limited. With approximately 20,000 units in the organized sector, the penetration rate stands at a mere 1%, underscoring a substantial demand-supply gap compared to mature markets like the US, UK, and Australia.
Evolving Senior Living Offerings
The landscape of senior living in India is undergoing a transformation, with private developers stepping up to offer tailored solutions to meet the diverse needs of the aging population. Presently, senior living options range from 1 to 3 BHK apartments or villas, available in two formats: independent living and assisted living.
Independent living facilities cater to seniors who desire the autonomy of managing their daily activities while benefiting from the community atmosphere. The average ticket size for independent senior living in India ranges from INR 1 to 2 crore, with variations based on city and location. Despite the growing demand, only a handful of developers currently focus on this segment. Key players include Ashiana Housing, Columbia Pacific, Paranjape, Anatara, and Primus Senior Living, with a notable concentration of supply in southern cities, leaving ample room for expansion in other regions.
Concurrently, the concept of assisted living is gaining momentum, offering additional services such as housekeeping, medical coordination, physiotherapy, on-premise nursing attendants, emergency response systems, and society maintenance services.
Navigating the Future of Senior Living
The shift towards senior living is gaining traction in tier II cities, driven by a preference for a more relaxed lifestyle and lower infrastructure stress. Cities like Ahmedabad, Surat, Coimbatore, Kochi, and Panaji are emerging as preferred destinations for senior living accommodations. Additionally, pilgrimage sites such as Vrindavan, Ayodhya, Dwarka, and Rameswaram are witnessing a surge in demand.
Despite the growing interest, the current supply predominantly caters to the upper-middle and high-end segments, presenting challenges for low and mid-income senior living projects.
Future Outlook and Institutional Investment
Leading developers are exploring innovative models to integrate senior living within larger townships, enhancing vibrancy and profitability. Brands like Wadhwa Group, Adani Realty, and Max Estates are already gearing up to launch integrated senior living projects across major cities in the coming years.
Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the untapped potential of the senior living asset class, with global players expected to drive innovation and reshape the market landscape. As the sector matures, alternative models such as operator-based arrangements akin to co-living and coworking spaces are likely to gain prominence, offering dynamic and inclusive living environments for India’s aging population.
Slow Growth So Far
If Colliers India’s 2021 report on senior living is to be relied upon, the supply of senior housing has remained stagnant at 20,000.
“In the Indian context, the market is at a nascent stage with approximately 20,000 Senior Living units available, of which ~55% are operational, and the rest are at various stages of construction. As per the conservative assessment, the urgent need for senior living facilities is required only for senior citizens living alone in urban areas, which stands at over 88,000 units, implying a shortage. The shortage on this account is expected to increase to 1.25 lac units by 2031,” says the Colliers India report in 2021.
Table: A Conservative Estimation of the Market Size & Assessment of Opportunity (2021)
| Year | Static Assumptions | 2011 | 2021 | 2031 |
| Population (persons in Mn) | 1210.8 | 1393 | 1514 | |
| % Population of 60 yrs + age group | 7.4% | 10.1% | 13.1% | |
| Population (Mn) of 60+ age group | 90 | 141 | 198 | |
| %age of old age persons living alone (not as inmate of old age home) As per Report titles “ELDERLY in INDIA 2021” released by MOSPI. Assuming that to hold true for 2021 & 2031 | 4.20% | |||
| Senior population living alone, Population (in Mn) | 0.0 | 5.9 | 8.3 | |
| % of old age population living in urban areas (30%, indicated in 2011 census. Assuming the same to remain same for coming years) | 30% | 30% | 30% | |
| Need of “Senior Living Home” Beds | 0 | 17,72,732 | 24,99,008 | |
| Assuming 5% of these to translate into demand for organized Senior Living facility | 5% | 0 | 88,637 | 1,24,950 |
| Supplied Units as on 2020 (in all forms) | 20,000 | |||
| Shortage | 0 | 68,637 | 1,04,950 |
Challenges Before Senior Housing
The senior housing sector in India faces a myriad of challenges amidst burgeoning opportunities, with key issues ranging from social stigma to product specialization and project location. As the country grapples with an aging population, developers and stakeholders are increasingly focusing on key success factors and adapting to post-pandemic realities to shape the future of senior living.
The sector progressed somewhat at a slow pace over the last decade; it seems that the product will find more acceptability and gain momentum in this decade.
Social Stigma
One of the primary obstacles hindering the growth of the senior housing sector is the prevailing social stigma associated with it. Senior housing often carries connotations of traditional “Vridha Aashrams,” deterring middle-class individuals from choosing such accommodations. However, evolving family structures and increasing urbanization are gradually fostering acceptance of senior living options.
Integration of Technology
Incorporating technology plays a pivotal role in enhancing the quality of care and services in senior living facilities. From high-speed internet access to real-time monitoring of vital signs, advanced technological solutions enable proactive care delivery and emergency response, emphasizing preventive measures over reactive interventions.